Disappointing Although Not Surprising

Today is indeed a dark day. Waking up to find that race between the Bloc`s Nancy Gagnon and Harpercon Star, Bernard Genereux was won by the latter. He did it without the help of Jean Charest no less. This was one race our premier chose not to involve himself with. True, Genereux was the popular mayor of  one of the village in a collection of villages known as Montmagny-L'Islet-Kamouraska-Riviere du Loup. Yes, like so many rural regions of Quebec, they are generally conservative thinkers who actually would cheer for the abolition of the Long Gun Registry and would be turned off at Gilles Duceppe`s proposal of coming up with a similar registry for Quebec. Also like most rural regions of Quebec, the Catholic Church still has an influence over village life. However, it was a Bloc strong hold for a long time and given that these folks are also uni-lingual French and separatist for the most part and their native son, Mario has left politics entirely in favour for a career in TV, I thought Gagnon would squeak through. The pundits like Jean Lapierre on CTV's Question Period even predicted that. Hell, even Mario Dumont was nowhere near this campaign. All looked good for The Bloc to maintain Montmagny-L'Islet-Kamouraska-Riviere du Loup even if only by a margin.

It was not to be.  Indeed a dark day.

Gilles Duceppe is wondering if the riding was punishing Paul Crete, the Bloc MP for resigning so soon into his mandate to run provincially. I don't think that's it, Gilles, I think it's more like 242 Million Clam bribery scheme for the riding last Friday.

Of course, simply because the Harpercons don't know the meaning of the words gracious and humble, they had to rub salt in the wound:

“Mr. Duceppe, the population also sent you a clear message; the Bloc does not have the monopoly on Quebec values.”

No, Dimitri Soudas and the other Harpercons: the good folks of Montmagny-l'Islet-Kamouraska-Riviere du Loup just know a good deal when they have it dangling in front of their noses. If not for that, I'm sure the riding would have remained in the hands of the Bloc. Pundits predicted as much in spite of the popularity of Genereux as Mayor of La Pocatiere.

Also, Mr. Soudas, you may have Quebec City and that disgraced clown in the Beauce and that hill billy up north in Roberval, but that doesn't mean you understand Quebec values as well as the Bloc Quebecois. Mr. Soudas, your boss only has appeal to hillbillies, church folks and farmers in some of the regions of Quebec. Try to make a dent in the Greater Montreal Area now.

I also think that the passing of the private members' bill, scrapping the long gun registry and the fact that Duceppe is proposing to create one for Quebec had something to with it.  I have noticed alot of news pages and bloggers saying that all of Quebec support the Long Gun Registry. That's ok, It wouldn't be the first time those outside of Quebec misunderstood Quebecers. If truth be told, one would be hard pressed to find a Quebecer outside the Greater Montreal Area who supported the Long Gun Registry or supports gun control for that matter.

What does this result and the results from the other three ridings mean? 

Hochelaga is a non-issue; as mentioned previously, a chimpanzee can win in Hochelaga if it were Bloc. 

The other two ridings were predictable. Although, I have to wonder how the folks of  Cumberland—Colchester—Musquodoboit Valley would vote for Harper's Neo-cons given their poor treatment toward those people.

I find it strange that bloggers and journalists call this Iggy's test or Iggy's loss. Those ridings were never his to lose in the first place. Yes, had the Liberals been able to steal one of those four ridings, it would be the shocking booster the party needed, but nobody believed that would happen. I don't even think Iggy believed it. Otherwise, why didn't he run so-called 'stars' in any of those four ridings? I don't think anybody really knew who the four Liberal candidates were.

My fear is: given the Harpercon wins in Nova Scotia and the collection of villages down river in Quebec;  does this pave the way to a sure Harpercon majority come this spring when a general federal election would be surely held??

The only warning I would have for Stevie is: they voted for your guy: make good on your bribe now, or else, if you don't, I venture to guess that if a general election were held this spring, Montmagny-L'Islet-Kamouraska-Riviere du Loup will go back to the Bloc and I think this time, it won't be Nancy Gagnon; he will more than likely find an old Parti Quebecois Star to run against the good former mayor of La Pocatiere.  I think we can now put this collection of villages in the Lower St-Lawrence in the category of bellwether ridings. 

While I don't like to see promises from politician's broken. I will make an exception and I do hope that Stevie doesn't deliver the goods to the good folks of Montmagny-L'Islet-Kamouraska-Riviere du Loup.