Sunday, November 22, 2009

Do the Federal Liberals Even Have a Future?

To read how Janine Krieber views the Liberals these days would certainly imply that they don't have much of a future. However, just like those pundits from Question Period this morning, she, unfortunately comes off as someone with a case of sour grapes. Perhaps that's even a part of it. However, she is on to something. She must be: that infamous Facebook posting was quickly taken down. If this was simply a case of bitterness, why the urgency to take down the posting? Perhaps she should have used a nom de plume; perhaps it could be taken more seriously and would look less like a wife with sour grapes. She does express probably what a lot of folks are thinking these days, including Liberal MPs and other party insiders themselves.

Either way, the fact that she took down the posting doesn't erase it. Journalists and pundits are covering it. Folks are paying attention.

Krieber even hints at throwing her support behind another party. Who would that be though? The N.D.P.? No matter what party; this would be problematic  given her husband is still a Liberal M.P. representing St-Laurent as he has for many years. Yes, there was a hint from Iggy way back when about replacing him with some female 'star' a la Nathalie Le Prohon, but we didn't hear anything more about that.  I'm sure party insiders pointed out that that would be an error given Dion has represented St-Laurent for many years. If the good folks of St-Laurent keep voting him in, they must have confidence in him to represent their interests. Is Dion still being pushed out the door? Would Peter Donolo and the new staff be pushing for that?

According to the latest Ipsos Reid Poll, The N.D.P. have jumped 6 points to 19% support nationally. The Liberals are at 24% and The Harpercons are at 37%: well within grasp of a majority (After all, Chretien had won a majority with only 37% of the vote). The Bloc and The Greens have 9% and 10% respectively.

What could that mean?  Patrick R  wrote about this with, what I observed to be a certain amount of enthusiasm. Hmm, Patrick, enthusiastic about the N.D.P. numbers; this can't be good. Then, of course this would make Patrick and other like-minded folks happy. This would split the left and the Harpercons get their majority, coming up the middle. Whether that would entail an N.D.P. or Liberal official opposition, it wouldn't matter. Stevie would be unleashed with a majority and thus his true Reform, NCC , Ultra-right wing conservatism would come shining through. It would be Bush-era U.S.A. mimicked.

I found what she says below of particular interest: 

"The Liberal party is in a free fall, and it won't recover. Like all the liberal parties in Europe, it will become a poor little thing at the mercy of ephemeral coalitions. For having refused the historic coalition that could have placed it at the head of the left, it will be punished by history."

Does she mean what a lot of folks are thinking? Should the Liberals and the N.D.P. take a page from the Harpercon playbook and merge? It's something I've been saying for a long time. Something a lot of folks, even those left of center can't seem to agree on and don't really talk about it.

A lot of folks may not have liked the idea of that proposed coalition last year. This is why it is important that they merge before the next general election.

In spite of the best of intentions, the hiring of Peter Donolo and the new staff may well be too little too late. Iggy must go. However, this will probably only happen later rather than sooner.

I found this article from the Canadian Press today regarding what Peter Donolo's intentions may be.  Interesting this would be released just after Janine Krieber's Facebook postings. 

While Donolo is not revealing all of his secrets, I'm wondering if replacing Iggy down the road is a possibility in his mind as well?

He's closed the Liberal election war room for the immediate future. There will be no talk of an election for at least seven months, maybe even a year, according to the Canadian Press. Other than turning his academic resume into a positive and to be more on the offensive Donolo also says that he is pretty much going to have Iggy 'be himself'; to 'unpackage him' rather than to package him. What could this mean? Does he simply want to observe Iggy to see if he can be salvaged or not?

Even though, the campaign mode is turned off, The Liberals will be 'more aggressive and focussed' during question period and they will be countering Harpercon's vicious attack ads head-on. That's good. It's about time.

Whatever the case, I intrepret today's piece from Canadian Press to hint that this is Iggy's last chance to appeal to Canadian voters.  I dare say that if Iggy doesn't improve his numbers in seven months like that article suggested, I think Donolo will recommend a changing of the guard. Maybe even a merger or at least some kind of agreement with  the N.D.P.

This is all well and good to turn off the campaign mode, close the election war room and no election talk for a minimum of seven months, but what if Stevie decides to provoke one sooner? He is well within majority range. He must realize that if the N.D.P.'s numbers hold or go up slightly, he wouldn't need that magic 40% to come up the middle with a majority. As I've pointed out in my posting from last night, more and more Canadians are supporting Stevie and in spite of their "I don't want an election" whining last September, they do want an election yesterday if it can ensure Harpercon majority. 

I'm wondering if Donolo has a plan for that potential scenario? 

I don't doubt Donolo's capabilities given his resume, but I think Iggy must go now, because of the above mentioned scenario.  A new leader must be selected ASAP. And no, NOT Bob Rae. I know, he's there. But no; that would just be another disaster. Do the research. If one has to be plucked out of retirement, so be it. What's more, it's time for a merger of  the N.D.P. and the Liberals.

Do the Federal Liberals have a future? Not without a lot of help. Not with Iggy at the helm. They will be needing some kind of collaboration, if not a merger with the N.D.P.

Side note: something else of interest: Neither the Harpercons, nor the opposition parties have succeeded in eliminating the raison d'etre for the Bloc Quebecois. Why would this be, considering sovereignty is on the back burner and has been for some time now. Gilles Duceppe didn't even promote separation in the last federal election campaign. A lot of Quebec federalists be they Francophone or Anglophone: rural or urban still vote for the Bloc. This is something all these parties should think about.


Geordie Tom said...

Why would the NDP be interested in a merger (takeover) by the LPC when they are on the rise and LPC are in freefall? Iggy is obviously happy to have the CPC run the country in these difficult times, a vote of confidence I would say.

Edmonton Lib said...

The chance to work with the NDP was in January with the coalition. Iffy turned that down flat, dooming Liberals to their fate.

We can't expect the NDP to take us back now after we kicked them to the curb.

CK said...

Geordie Tom: Because (hopefully the NDP can think a bit beyond their respective careers); they must realize as I've pointed out that with LPC and NDP numbers so close, Steve and the Harpercons coming up the middle with a majority as a greater possibility.

Edmonton Lib, NDP should reconsider given the possible scenario I mentioned above.

Reality is that the NDP will never ever be the ruling party. The best they can hope for is official opposition, and with a Harpercon majority, it really doesn't matter who the opposition would be. Stevie will bring Bush era America here.

Also, Edmonton Lib, I seriously doubt Iggy will be left at the helm after 7 months (tentative deadline for goal of Donolo), unless his numbers miraculously go up and I just don't see that happening.