Disappointing Although Not Surprising

Today is indeed a dark day. Waking up to find that race between the Bloc`s Nancy Gagnon and Harpercon Star, Bernard Genereux was won by the latter. He did it without the help of Jean Charest no less. This was one race our premier chose not to involve himself with. True, Genereux was the popular mayor of  one of the village in a collection of villages known as Montmagny-L'Islet-Kamouraska-Riviere du Loup. Yes, like so many rural regions of Quebec, they are generally conservative thinkers who actually would cheer for the abolition of the Long Gun Registry and would be turned off at Gilles Duceppe`s proposal of coming up with a similar registry for Quebec. Also like most rural regions of Quebec, the Catholic Church still has an influence over village life. However, it was a Bloc strong hold for a long time and given that these folks are also uni-lingual French and separatist for the most part and their native son, Mario has left politics entirely in favour for a career in TV, I thought Gagnon would squeak through. The pundits like Jean Lapierre on CTV's Question Period even predicted that. Hell, even Mario Dumont was nowhere near this campaign. All looked good for The Bloc to maintain Montmagny-L'Islet-Kamouraska-Riviere du Loup even if only by a margin.

It was not to be.  Indeed a dark day.

Gilles Duceppe is wondering if the riding was punishing Paul Crete, the Bloc MP for resigning so soon into his mandate to run provincially. I don't think that's it, Gilles, I think it's more like 242 Million Clam bribery scheme for the riding last Friday.

Of course, simply because the Harpercons don't know the meaning of the words gracious and humble, they had to rub salt in the wound:

“Mr. Duceppe, the population also sent you a clear message; the Bloc does not have the monopoly on Quebec values.”

No, Dimitri Soudas and the other Harpercons: the good folks of Montmagny-l'Islet-Kamouraska-Riviere du Loup just know a good deal when they have it dangling in front of their noses. If not for that, I'm sure the riding would have remained in the hands of the Bloc. Pundits predicted as much in spite of the popularity of Genereux as Mayor of La Pocatiere.

Also, Mr. Soudas, you may have Quebec City and that disgraced clown in the Beauce and that hill billy up north in Roberval, but that doesn't mean you understand Quebec values as well as the Bloc Quebecois. Mr. Soudas, your boss only has appeal to hillbillies, church folks and farmers in some of the regions of Quebec. Try to make a dent in the Greater Montreal Area now.

I also think that the passing of the private members' bill, scrapping the long gun registry and the fact that Duceppe is proposing to create one for Quebec had something to with it.  I have noticed alot of news pages and bloggers saying that all of Quebec support the Long Gun Registry. That's ok, It wouldn't be the first time those outside of Quebec misunderstood Quebecers. If truth be told, one would be hard pressed to find a Quebecer outside the Greater Montreal Area who supported the Long Gun Registry or supports gun control for that matter.

What does this result and the results from the other three ridings mean? 

Hochelaga is a non-issue; as mentioned previously, a chimpanzee can win in Hochelaga if it were Bloc. 

The other two ridings were predictable. Although, I have to wonder how the folks of  Cumberland—Colchester—Musquodoboit Valley would vote for Harper's Neo-cons given their poor treatment toward those people.

I find it strange that bloggers and journalists call this Iggy's test or Iggy's loss. Those ridings were never his to lose in the first place. Yes, had the Liberals been able to steal one of those four ridings, it would be the shocking booster the party needed, but nobody believed that would happen. I don't even think Iggy believed it. Otherwise, why didn't he run so-called 'stars' in any of those four ridings? I don't think anybody really knew who the four Liberal candidates were.

My fear is: given the Harpercon wins in Nova Scotia and the collection of villages down river in Quebec;  does this pave the way to a sure Harpercon majority come this spring when a general federal election would be surely held??

The only warning I would have for Stevie is: they voted for your guy: make good on your bribe now, or else, if you don't, I venture to guess that if a general election were held this spring, Montmagny-L'Islet-Kamouraska-Riviere du Loup will go back to the Bloc and I think this time, it won't be Nancy Gagnon; he will more than likely find an old Parti Quebecois Star to run against the good former mayor of La Pocatiere.  I think we can now put this collection of villages in the Lower St-Lawrence in the category of bellwether ridings. 

While I don't like to see promises from politician's broken. I will make an exception and I do hope that Stevie doesn't deliver the goods to the good folks of Montmagny-L'Islet-Kamouraska-Riviere du Loup.

Journalists May Have it Wrong About Quebec By-Election

I am speaking mainly of L. Ian MacDonald's opinion piece in National Post and Chantal Hebert's piece in the Toronto Star, regarding one Quebec riding up for grabs down river: Montmagny-L'Islet-Kamouraska-Rivière-du-Loup. In both of those pieces and in others, I'm sure, they presume the new 'star' candidate, Bernard Genereux will have support of Premier Jean Charest in the upcoming by-election. It is said that he has close ties to Charest's Liberals. I think they're assuming too quickly that Charest will back Genereux.

As someone who has spent time in that part of Quebec, the folks of Montmagny-L'Islet-Kamouraska-Riviere-du-Loup, I can honestly say that, although  I believe in the end, the Bloc will remain there,  it could be close. I also never believed that provincial riding would go Liberal, neither. One never can tell how these elections can turn out with certainty.  It was the heartland of the short-lived Mario Dumont Action Democratique du Quebec, a sort-of reincarnation of Maurice Duplessis's old Union Nationale party. The A.D.Q. still exist but, without it's native son, Mario Dumont, Montmagny-L'Islet-Kamouraska-Riviere du Loup won't be such an easy win for Genereux. 

These people are conservative for the most part, rural, and like so many rural regions in  Quebec, the Catholic Church still has some influence over their lives. However, these are unilingual French speaking people who are generally pro-separatist.

These journalists like MacDonald and Hebert are saying Genereux has close ties to the Charest Liberals. I'm wondering how close is it really?  Do they think it's enough to get Genereux through? I'm not so sure about that.

We must remember during last year's federal election, Charest was none too happy with Stevie and his Harpercons for cozying up to Dumont. That, along with the cuts to arts and culture Stevie announced just after calling the 2008 election were enough for Charest to campaign for the Bloc. It ended up costing dearly for Stevie and Harpercons in Quebec. Has Charest really changed his tune where it concerns Stevie?

Given Charest's loyalties to Brian Mulroney, and Stevie's absence from the anniversary party of Mulroney's 1984 win,  and the rift between Stevie and Mulroney over the Karlheinz Schreiber affair; Charest isn't likely to help Stevie. It has been suggested that ol' Stevie start playing nice with Charest if he expects to get anywhere in Quebec. That is all well and good, but it may not even be in Charest's political interests to start playing ball with Stevie. Depending on what you read, there has been speculation about this term as premier of Quebec may be his last. Although he said as recently as last August that he wants to stay on, being prime-minister of Canada with the Tories has always been an aspiration of his. He is still young enough for a political career change and if Stevie doesn't get a majority in the next Federal election, he will have to resign, thus, leaving the door open for Charest to run for Tory leadership. He is someone who could get a Tory majority in Canada.

One thing curious as of late, I have not found anything to suggest that Charest is campaigning for either Genereux or Nancy Gagnon, the Bloc candidate for this By-election. He appears to be staying out of it. I don't know if this is a good or a bad thing for either party. However, the fact that he's not campaigning for Genereux brings up the question: how close are Genereux's ties to the Charest Liberals, really? Have journalists like Hebert and MacDonald overestimated these close ties? I suppose Genereux might have gotten more support if he ran for the Bloc.

Charest may come out in support of one of the parties just before the by-election, although, that might not be too likely, as he has other problems of his own on the provincial front. He wants to lower Quebec's deficit as quickly as possible with measures like introducing service fees for some governement services, hike in Hydro fees, introducing tuition fees for  CEGEPs, something that will no doubt get a rise from the student population who tend to be separatist leaning. He also intends to raise the sales tax come January. I speculate that trying to sell these measures to Quebecers will make him too busy to worry about a by-election down river. 

One thing I must question about Gilles Duceppe though. Why waste a star like Daniel Paille in Hochelaga, one of the Bloc's safest seats? Hell, Duceppe can run a chimpanzee in Hochelaga and they would still win. Paille should perhaps be running in Montmagny-L'Islet-Kamouraska-Riviere-du-Loup. Oh well, I wish Nancy Gagnon all the luck, because she will need it. 

While I'm not a separatist, I view the Bloc as 'my enemy's enemy is my friend', thus a Bloc win down river could well keep Stevie and Harpercons from making any gains here in Quebec. It's bad enough that they could take the B.C. and N.S. ridings.